Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Is New Jersey Really a Blue State?

Alan Steinberg asks a very legitimate question: How Blue is New Jersey?

Very interesting article, here are a few arguments that NJ should not be dismissed as a safely blue state:
  • In six consecutive Presidential contests from 1968 through 1988, the Republican candidate carried New Jersey in each election.
  • From January, 1992 until January, 2002, the Republicans controlled both the New Jersey Assembly and Senate.
  • From January, 1995 until January, 1999, the Republicans controlled a majority of the 13-member New Jersey delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • The Republicans have controlled the Governorship of New Jersey for 16 of the past 28 years.
  • During this 28 year period, no Democrat has been reelected as governor, and it appears increasingly unlikely that Jon Corzine will be reelected in 2009.
  • The 2001 Larry Bartels-approved legislative district reapportionment has given the Democrats a much more firm control of the state Assembly and Senate than they would have received under the previous map. The key evidence of this is the results of the 2003 legislative elections. The Republican legislative candidates actually carried 53 per cent of the total votes cast statewide; yet the New Jersey GOP lost seats in both houses.

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